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Rwanda & Tanzania Stable growth markets with high earnings potential

Rwanda & Tanzania

Africa encompasses 55 individual states. In 2019, six African countries were among the world’s ten fastest-growing economies, among them Rwanda with a growth of 8.7 % and Tanzania at 6.8 %.

Due to the African free trade agreement, the BDI conservatively estimates that the intra-African trade will more than double. The African Union is even more optimistic. According to the BMZ, Africa will have the world’s largest labour force potential in 2035. At the same time, the African continent evolves into an enormous sales market.

East Africa

East Africa is the fastest growing region in Africa, according to the African Development Bank. Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda pursue the common goal to further the economic, political, social and cultural integration within the framework of the East African Community (EAC). Since its establishment in 2002, EAC member states have experienced a significant increase of their interstate trade.

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Source: McKinsey & Company, Lions on the Move II, 2016
Republic of Rwanda

Worldwide, Rwanda enjoys a high reputation. After the genocide in 1994, the country succeeded in developing into an African model economy. Rwanda is therefore also referred to as the ›Singapore of Africa‹.

Volkswagen is also committed to Rwanda. The Group started local production in the Rwandan capital Kigali in 2018 as part of an integrated mobility concept. Thomas Schäfer, CEO of Volkswagen South Africa, said in this context: “Rwanda can become a blueprint for other emerging countries in Africa and worldwide.”

 

Though we are a small country, we believe that we are forerunners. We are determined to become Africa’s innovation leader.

Hon. Francis Gatare, Director of the Rwanda Development Board (RDB)
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United Republic of Tanzania

The United Republic of Tanzania is one of the most populous sub-Saharan countries. According to GTZ, it is a country with a high degree of political stability and an open, versatile economic policy. Significant progress in the past has been accompanied by an increasing integration into the global market, which opens up new opportunities for successful investments.

Tanzania has a rapidly growing production sector. It has attracted numerous foreign investors in recent years. In addition, Tanzania has developed into a transit and tourism hub.

 

Real Estate Markets

The real estate markets in Rwanda & Tanzania are characterized by far-reaching structural changes in the population. In general, both Rwanda & Tanzania are experiencing a very strong movement from the countryside to the cities. An impressive example is the Tanzanian business metropolis Dar es Salaam, where the population has grown from approx. 2.5 million inhabitants in 2002 to approx. 6.7 million in 2019. Other rapidly growing cities are the Rwandan capital Kigali and the Tanzanian cities Mwanza, Arusha and Dodoma.

One important reason for the strong urbanization is the rising level of education, combined with a growing supply of jobs for higher-qualified jobs in the cities. This is accompanied by targeted government measures to improve the quality and quantity of educational opportunities, such as the expansion of universities. Rwanda’s government is expressly aiming to transform the country into a knowledge society – location decisions by Volkswagen and Mara Phones appear to confirm the success of this strategy.

Another important change in the population structure is also taking place against the background of high economic growth, which is accompanied by increasing prosperity and, correspondingly, a growing middle and upper class. This is not only leading to a growing demand for higher-quality housing, but also for higher-quality office and commercial space. Ultimately, the increasing prosperity leads to a demand for more and better tourist offers. The Rwandan real estate market around Lake Kivu and the real estate market on the east coast of Tanzania at the Indian Ocean benefit particularly from this.

The growing prosperity and the associated purchasing power also leads to a change in consumer behaviour. Consumers are demanding more attractive shopping opportunities, and international brands are expanding their range of products and demand more sophisticated retail space.

Market Analysis

Knight Frank, Africa Report, 2020/21
Knight Frank, Africa Horizons, 2019
Knight Frank, Hotels Africa, 2018
PwC, Hotels Outlook: 2019-2023, 2019
CAHF, Housing Finance in Africa, Section: Rwanda, 2019
CAHF, Housing Finance in Africa, Section: Tanzania, 2019

High Economic Growth

The economies of Rwanda & Tanzania have been experiencing a solid upswing for years. In 2019, they were among the ten fastest growing economies in the world.

Source: IMF, 2020

Corona Crisis growth

The expected comparatively mild corona slump in the economies of Rwanda & Tanzania illustrates the high economic stability of both countries.

Source: IMF, May 2020

Relation to the price of crude oil

Although Tanzania has considerable natural gas reserves, the national budget’s dependency on income from the exploitation of this resource is comparatively low. In Rwanda, there is no financial dependence due to the lack of significant deposits.

Source: IMF, 2019

We in Africa have now understood that trade and investment, not financial aid, are the pillars of our development.

Paul Kagame, President of the Republic of Rwanda

Exchange Rates

For real estate project development in Rwanda & Tanzania, not only the exchange rates of the Rwandan franc (RWF) and the Tanzanian shilling (TZS) are important. Transactions and rent payments are often also carried out in US Dollars (USD).

Average change (2010-2019)

EUR/RWF2.6 % p.a.
EUR/TZS3.3 % p.a.
EUR/USD-2.2 % p.a.
Source: Finanzen.net, 2020

Inflation

The appreciation of the euro against the Rwandan franc (RWF) and the Tanzanian shilling (TZS) is closely linked to inflation. In the case of real estate investments, the effects of inflation are absorbed by property price increases and index-linked rental agreements.

Average inflation (2010-2019)

Rwanda3.8 % p.a.
Tanzania7.3 % p.a.
Germany1.3 % p.a.
USA1.8 % p.a.
Source: Statista, 2020